Nicola Garbarino, Benjamin Guin and Jonathan Lee
5.2 million properties in England are prone to flooding. To make sure the supply and affordability of flood insurance coverage to households in flood-prone areas, the UK Authorities launched an revolutionary reinsurance scheme, Flood Re, in April 2016. It supplies insurers with an choice to cross the flood-risk aspect of their insurance policies on to the reinsurer at a decrease mounted worth in keeping with property council tax band. In a just lately revealed Workers Working Paper, we make use of a granular knowledge set of all property transactions and flood occasions in England. We estimate the impact of Flood Re on property values. We additionally discover if Flood Re results are heterogeneous throughout completely different subpopulations in England.
Flood Re reduces insurance coverage premiums for households in flood-risk areas by over half for 4 out of 5 properties with earlier flood claims. This could enhance the values of flood-prone properties. Nevertheless, in concept, the magnitude of this property worth impact will depend on the anticipated discount in future insurance coverage premiums attributable to Flood Re in addition to the speed in discounting future insurance coverage premiums. Furthermore, the Flood Re impact would possibly fluctuate by space and demographic teams as a consequence of variations in flood danger and residential possession.
Empirical method to establish the house-price impact of Flood Re
In our analysis, we look at properties in England. We make use of a ‘repeat gross sales method’ inspecting solely these 1.5 million properties constructed earlier than 2002 and bought a number of instances. Particularly, we regress the change in property worth on their publicity to flooding. In our regression, we work together this flood publicity with a binary variable capturing the time interval when Flood Re was working. The character of this analysis design permits us to account for unobservable and time-invariant property traits, by inspecting the impact of floods on property costs each earlier than and after Flood Re got here in. To gauge heterogeneous results of the coverage, we then estimate our regression in several subsamples. To that finish, we slice our knowledge by property values and completely different regional traits, similar to their earnings stage, obtained from the Workplace of Nationwide Statistics.
Common affect of Flood Re on property costs
Chart 1 illustrates the impact of Flood Re on costs of flooded properties. We first run our regression on the total pattern of properties in England. We discover that flood occasions scale back property values by greater than 1.5% relative to their first transition earlier than the introduction of Flood Re. This detrimental impact is totally mitigated after the introduction of Flood Re.
Chart 1: Impact of Flood Re on property costs
For a mean property, the introduction of Flood Re will increase the relative worth of properties on account of flooding by £4,083. We then conduct a back-of-the-envelope calculation among the many 5.2 million properties which can be prone to flooding in England. It means that the subsidisation of Flood Re will increase the overall worth of flooded properties by £212.3 million per 12 months, assuming just one% of the at-risk properties are flooded yearly. The overall impact of Flood Re on property values would double to £424.6 million if flood-risk likelihood additional will increase to 2%.
Our outcomes recommend that Flood Re additionally will increase the transaction volumes of properties in at-risk areas. Chart 2 outlines the results of Flood Re on the transaction volumes of flooded properties. Our outcomes recommend {that a} flooded property has a 3.6% discount within the annual likelihood of transacting earlier than Flood Re got here into place. Flood Re greater than offsets this detrimental impact on the transaction likelihood and will increase the transaction of flooded properties.
Chart 2: Impact of Flood Re on market liquidity
Regional heterogeneity within the response of property costs
We additionally discover heterogeneous results of Flood Re in several areas throughout England. To that finish, we create subsamples by using median values of key variables to separate the unique pattern in half. The impact of Flood Re is stronger in city areas with the next earnings and an older inhabitants in addition to areas with extra rental properties. Whereas it might be attention-grabbing to establish the channels resulting in the heterogeneous results, our examine leaves this query to future analysis as a result of lack of extra granular knowledge.
Conclusion and dialogue
Our outcomes illustrate two key implications. First, we doc heterogeneous Flood Re results. Apparently, our outcomes recommend that Flood Re has a weak affect in lower-income areas however a stronger affect in higher-income areas. These outcomes will be seen as proof hinting at distributional penalties of this reinsurance scheme by way of wealth amongst owners in England.
Second, the outcomes are related for the transition danger of public coverage interventions. Flood Re is predicted to be phased out in 2039. The flood-risk part of property insurance coverage might subsequently be totally priced into premiums by that point. Consequently, the worth of properties at flood danger might expertise a sudden adjustment, reflecting the rise in present and future premiums. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the impact that we estimate doesn’t seem massive sufficient to disrupt property and monetary markets, however this will likely change if flood-risk perceptions change within the subsequent a long time.
Nicola Garbarino works on the Ludwig Maximilian College of Munich and the Ifo Institute, Benjamin Guin works within the Financial institution’s Technique and Coverage Strategy Division and Jonathan Lee works on the College of Glasgow.
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