Yves right here. I famous a shocking lack of updates in my inbox. It seems that the Prigozhin revolt was a giant flash within the pan and is on it option to being tamped out. Notice additionally this was the West’s finest shot at their a lot ballyhooed revolt towards Putin and nobody in Russian management, and apparently per Helmer not even any of the Wagner officers, supported it.
By John Helmer, the longest repeatedly serving overseas correspondent in Russia, and the one western journalist to direct his personal bureau unbiased of single nationwide or industrial ties. Helmer has additionally been a professor of political science, and an advisor to authorities heads in Greece, america, and Asia. He’s the primary and solely member of a US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to determine himself in Russia. Initially printed at Dances with Bears
With out the general public help of any political determine in Russia, navy or police unit, regional governor, or the officers of his Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his thousand rank-and-filers have agreed to return to their base camps on phrases negotiated late on Saturday afternoon between Prigozhin and Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarus President./
The one-armed revolt has failed with recriminations, immunity from prosecution, and nearly no bloodshed. The Kremlin answer has adopted the precedent of Basic Alexander Lebed’s (lead picture, centre) revolt towards President Boris Yeltsin in 1996, not the violent finish of the revolt of Yemelyan Pugachev (left) of 1773-75.
Dmitry Rogozin, who was one of many strategists of Lebed’s marketing campaign for the presidency and later turned a deputy prime minister underneath President Vladimir Putin, made the distinction clear in an announcement he issued early on Saturday, earlier than Putin spoke at 10 o’clock. “I do know the scenario on the entrance in addition to Prigozhin and I’ve by no means hidden my place, however regardless of the rationalization for an armed revolt, it’s nonetheless an armed revolt within the rear of a belligerent military. In a struggle, it’s important to shove your political ambitions up your ass and help the entrance with all of your would possibly. Any makes an attempt to weaken it are nothing however aiding the enemy.”
One other of Lebed’s comrades of 27 years in the past, Sergei Glazyev, adopted with a repudiation of Prigozhin of his personal. Not one of the well-known critics of Putin on home coverage, nor the navy bloggers who’ve attacked the tactical administration and strategic priorities of the Particular Army Operation, supported Prigozhin.
The revolt, in response to sources talking on Saturday night, concerned advance planning by Prigozhin and a number of other hundred of the bottom ranks of his navy group. There was no help among the many Wagner officers. After that they had moved on Rostov, then took the highway to Voronezh and on in the direction of Moscow, the highway columns numbered a number of hundred, with a complete throughout the southwest of not more than 4 thousand.
An announcement issued by Lukashenko’s workplace in Minsk at 8 within the night stated the revolt was at an finish. “This morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin knowledgeable his Belarusian counterpart in regards to the scenario within the south of Russia with the personal navy firm Wagner. The heads of State agreed on joint actions. As a follow-up to the agreements, the President of Belarus, having additional clarified the scenario via his personal channels, in coordination with the President of Russia, held talks with the pinnacle of the Wagner PMCS [private military companies], Yevgeny Prigozhin.”
“The negotiations lasted all through the day. Consequently, we got here to an settlement on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody bloodbath on the territory of Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin accepted the proposal of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko to cease the motion of armed individuals of the Wagner firm on the territory of Russia and additional steps to de-escalate pressure. In the meanwhile, there may be a completely worthwhile and acceptable answer to the scenario on the desk, with safety ensures for the fighters of the Wagner PMCs.”
A well-informed Moscow supply says: “The entire thing was deliberate for a number of weeks. Troopers and unit sergeants may be on board. Officers, clearly not. That makes it a mutiny towards commanders. I don’t suppose Prigozhin he’ll go quietly. He’ll attempt to romanticize himself as a Pugachev and his assassins as peasants defending Russia from oligarchs. Questions can be requested when and which males had been already inside Rostov Army HQ. Maybe some advance events had been inside.”
There isn’t any publication but of Lukashenko’s phrases which Prigozhin has accepted for himself. Unconfirmed studies in Moscow point out he’ll go away the nation for Africa with one of many Wagner models working there. His media, communications, and web networks have been blocked.
The Warfare of the Worlds weekly broadcast went to air at 12 midday Moscow time. On the time there was appreciable uncertainty within the Russian supply reporting from Rostov and Voronezh; disinformation, faked movies, and panic studies, produced in Kiev, had been circulating within the western media.
Take heed to the evaluation right here.
Supply: https://tntradiolive.podbean.com/
The official prison cost towards Prigozhin is the armed revolt provision of the Russian Prison Code, Article 279:
Supply: https://www.wto.org/
Earlier than the radio broadcast started, Putin made his 5 minute, 34 second speech to the nation at 10 am. Unusually, he addressed the digicam on his ft. Learn the speech in full right here.
There have been no private statements from both Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu or chief of the Basic Employees, Basic Valery Gerasimov, the targets of Prigozhin’s public assaults.
Through the hours of the revolt on Friday and Saturday, alongside the road of contact within the Ukraine there seems to have been no breakthrough by Ukrainian forces. As a substitute, the Russian Protection Ministry has reported: “Tonight, the Russian Aerospace Forces launched a gaggle strike with high-precision long-range weapons on the centres of radio intelligence and aviation gear of the Ukrainian Air Forces on the Kanatovo airfields within the Kirovograd area, in addition to the Dnipro. All assigned objects are hit. The goal of the strike has been achieved.”
“As well as, on June 23, in response to a strike on a highway bridge throughout the Chongar Strait, a warehouse with Storm Shadow cruise missiles was destroyed at a Ukrainian airbase close to the settlement of Starokonstantinov within the Khmelnitsky area. Through the day, the armed forces of Ukraine continued unsuccessful makes an attempt of offensive actions within the South Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Krasno-Limansk instructions.”
A complete of 515 Ukrainian forces had been reported killed in motion. French Caesar howitzer and US M-777 howitzer models had been reported hit.
A second, companion piece for the printed will comply with on Sunday morning.
