Within the first 6 months of 2023, the Worth & Alternative portfolio gained +5,0% (together with dividends, no taxes) towards a acquire of +12,8% for the Benchmark (Eurostoxx50 (25%), EuroStoxx small 200 (25%), DAX (30%), MDAX (20%), all TR indices).
Hyperlinks to earlier Efficiency critiques might be discovered on the Efficiency Web page of the weblog. Another funds that I comply with have carried out as follows within the first 6M 2023:
Companions Fund TGV: 3,6%
Profitlich/Schmidlin: 16,6%
Squad European Convictions +7,6%
Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen 6,9%
Squad Aguja Particular State of affairs +5,3%
Paladin One -0,8%
Alphastars Europe + 11,4%
Efficiency overview:
General, the portfolio efficiency was within the decrease third of my peer group. Because the peer group is usually Small cap targeted, the general relative low returns correspond with the returns of European small cap indices and are mosly nicely under Giant cap indices. Trying on the month-to-month returns, it’s not troublesome to see that particularly January and June have been in relative phrases very disappointing.
Particularly within the final 2 weeks or so, some positions have been topic to very “indiviual” impacts, reminiscent of ABO Wind and their concept to remodel themselves right into a authorized construction (“KGaA”) that might curtail shareholder rights, or Sto that was impacted negatively by a really weak outlook from competitor Steico. Or Thermador, which suffered for no apparent cause.
That this 12 months can be a troublesome one in relative phrases was already clear from January. I nonetheless suppose that the portfolio provides nice potential, however quick time period share value momentum is clearly not superb for a lot of of my positions. Fortunately, I don’t must care in any respect about quick time period developments, I’ll proceed to concentrate on the mid- to long run which, I hope, will convey good outcomes.
2023 is a kind of years the place I’m very completely satisfied that I don’t handle third celebration cash. I can solely think about what sort of discussions I would wish to have with purchasers who wouldn’t perceive why the efficiency is to this point behind the benchmarks. Fortunate me !!!
Transactions Q2:
The present portfolio might be seen as all the time on the Portfolio web page.
In Q2, I offered Rockwool and Recticel after my deeper dive into insulation firms. Rockwool at a acquire of ~28%, Recticel at a lack of -9%. The second half of the 12 months might be robust for European constructing firms, so possibly there’s a likelihood to extend the publicity to chose gamers.
I additionally exited VEF because it change into one way or the other to small to hassle at a lack of ~-10%. This had been a pleasant winner in between however as of late, Fintech appears like a useless duck. Nevertheless I’ll preserve monitoring them. I additionally offered extra Meier & Tobler because the share value is above my mid time period goal.
There have been no new positions, solely place will increase in Schaffner and Sto.
Remark: “AI has saved the day”
What a distinction 9 months make. In Q3 2022, issues seemed very unhealthy for something associated to expertise. The Covid increase was over, Tech firms have been decreasing their forecasts and chopping jobs and Nasdaq share costs have been kind of in free fall. In retroperspective, all of this almost definitely modified with the November thirtieth launch of ChatGPT.
ChatGPT not solely grew to become the quickest rising client app with extra then 100 mn signal ups after 2 months, it additionally injected new life into the tech sector. “Generative AI” as it’s now recognized is meant to be the “huge subsequent factor” that may make everybody’s life significantly better and convey big quantities of cash to Tech firms.
As all the time, the large Tech firms gained most, as buyers contemplate their moats so sturdy that they may win even when they don’t have a devoted product like Apple. Within the wake of the Massive Tech firms, additionally quite a lot of the “fallen ShitCo Angels” have made some spectacular good points and the standard “ShitCo Tech Bros” have fun themselves for 2023 good points on FinTwit.
“Generative AI” appears to have woke up investor’s animal spirits in report time and even in early stage VC, the cash begins flowing freely once more like this 105 mn Seed spherical for a 4 week outdated AI start-up from France.
To not be outdone, German buyers are already flocking again to newly listed Shitcos like ParTec which mixes (in fact) Quantum computing and AI.
Marc Andreesen from A16Z already annonced in early June that “AI will save the world”. For now, AI has clearly saved the world for Enterprise Capitalists and Tech Traders. Lately I used to be pitched by a VC claiming that Generative AI and Blockchain are inseparable and subsequently Blockchain will come again with a vengance, too.
Personally, I’m not 100% positive if and the way justified the present AI hype is. This is primarily based on my commentary of the primary AI Growth that occurred round 4-5 years within the VC world.
Even again then, each startup claimed to have superior AI capabilities. A few of these start-ups like Lemonade and Upstart made it to the inventory change. Now after a few years it has change into fairly clear, that these AI capabilities have been nice on paper however sadly didn’t result in a superior consequence in enterprise efficiency for no matter cause. One other a lot hyped AI case, Self driving vehicles, additionally turned oput to be a lot tougher than initially thought and other than some native successes, full self driving appears nonetheless a few years away.
One other commentary is the next: Most of the present AI supporters like A16Z, Sadya Nadella or others declare that AI might be this excellent “Copilot” for people, serving to us to reinforce our skills and no hurt might be executed to anybody.
Nevertheless, once I was studying the out there AI literature 5 years in the past, most authors agreed on one factor: AI will develop and iterate at a digital velocity. So as soon as AI is nice sufficient to actually assist us in many various conditions, it’s inevitable that AI will be capable to these items in a really quick time with out human assist as it’s going to iterate extremely quick. My recommendation for younger folks can be: Don’t aspire to change into a “Immediate Engineer”, that career gained’t final that lengthy in any case.
So for the long run we may have almost definitely two situations and I’m not positive which is extra possible:
- AI capaibilities, regardless of ChatGPT and Midjourney are nonetheless rudimentary and it’ll nonetheless take a very long time till they actually make a distinction OR
- AI capabilities are already far superior and in very quick time AI primarily based algorithms will create havoc in lots of areas of life
Possibly I’m too pesimistic right here, however I don’t see the light, “save the world” properties of AI but. The one clear winners of the present hype are clearly VCs and the “tech ShitCo Bros” who’re in a position to pump the subsequent technology of ShitCos.
In the intervening time, I personally I really feel extra snug with “brick and mortar” enterprise fashions which are exhausting to switch with AI than something that may very well be impacted severly reminiscent of Software program.