2:00PM Water Cooler 11/28/2023 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Tune of the Day

Northern Screamer, Ciénaga la Coroza, Córdoba, Colombia. “Duet.”

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Supremes

“Supreme Courtroom to contemplate multi-pronged constitutional assault on SEC” [SCOTUSblog]. “The argument on Wednesday in Securities and Trade Fee v. Jarkesy will current a exceptional spectacle of three fully distinct constitutional challenges to wholly disparate attributes of the SEC. Ordinarily, the flexibility of the justices to manage their docket would permit them to attend on every query for the event of a circuit battle and choose an appropriate case wherein to resolve every challenge. However on this case a daring (I didn’t say “rogue”) panel of the U.S. Courtroom of Appeals for the fifth Circuit accepted all three arguments and invalidated three elements of the SEC’s operations. To go away the choice unreviewed would pressure Congress to revise considerably the affected parts of the securities legal guidelines solely based mostly on the opinion of 1 divided decrease court docket panel – therefore, the Supreme Courtroom’s buffet of constitutional legislation subjects on Wednesday morning…. The primary query earlier than the justices is whether or not Congress constitutionally licensed the company to adjudicate administrative proceedings that impose financial penalties. That raises a query beneath the court docket’s deeply fraught doctrine of “public rights,” which gives an exception to the Seventh Modification jury trial requirement. …. The second query is whether or not Congress can delegate to the SEC the facility to resolve whether or not a case needs to be pursued as an administrative continuing or as a civil enforcement motion – that’s, inside the company or in a federal district court docket. … The third query within the case is whether or not the Structure permits Congress to offer the SEC’s administrative legislation judges safety from elimination.”

“Supreme Courtroom to contemplate ‘quadrillion-dollar query’ in main tax case” [The Hill]. “At challenge in Moore v. United States is the query of whether or not the federal authorities can tax sure forms of “unrealized” positive factors, that are property like shares or bonds that individuals personal however from which they haven’t immediately recouped the worth, so that they don’t have direct entry to the cash that the property is price…. Even when the court docket limits the scope of its determination to the precise tax referenced within the case, referred to as the necessary repatriation tax, a ruling in favor of the plaintiffs might value $340 billion over the following decade, in response to the Justice Division…. Critics of a blanket constitutional requirement for realization say the thought is trumped up, and it’s actually simply in regards to the timing of when an asset is allowed to be taxed for accounting functions. They level to a 1940 determination in Helvering v. Horst discovering that ‘the rule that revenue isn’t taxable till realized has by no means been taken to imply that the taxpayer … can escape taxation as a result of he has not himself obtained fee of it from his obligor.’ It’s because the taxpayer ‘has totally loved the good thing about the financial acquire represented by his proper to obtain revenue,’ the court docket discovered. As such, the requirement was thought of to be ‘based on administrative comfort’ and ‘not one in every of exemption from taxation.’”

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“How one can Watch the DeSantis-Newsom Debate” [New York Times]. Moderated by Hannity. “Fox Information will host a 90-minute debate between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, beginning at 9 p.m. Japanese time on Thursday…. Mr. DeSantis is going through an intensifying race as he pushes for a powerful displaying in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses in January….. He’s going through Mr. Newsom, who has been a key ally of President Biden’s and a number one voice of the nationwide Democratic Celebration. Mr. Newsom has gathered the form of nationwide help and connections with donors that may place him in a powerful place for a future presidential run…. [T]he uncommon spectacle displays the present state of the presidential marketing campaign: Mr. DeSantis has been slowly dropping momentum and wishes a jolt. Mr. Newsom has additionally been desperate to additional increase his nationwide profile, and Mr. Biden wants highly effective surrogates who may help make the case for a second time period.” • “Spectacle.”

“The Memo: Newsom and DeSantis put together to sq. off for Fox debate” [The Hill]. “For DeSantis, it’s a uncommon alternative to command middle stage with out anybody else stealing his thunder…. Newsom, for his half, is clearly positioning himself as a nationwide determine inside the Democratic Celebration. He has tamped down hypothesis that he would problem President Biden for the nomination this 12 months. However he would nonetheless be some of the apparent alternate options if any occurred for the 81-year-old Biden and, even when that doesn’t occur, he has established himself as a top-tier candidate for the long run. Including an additional frisson to Thursday night’s conflict is the notion that the 2 males actually don’t like one another.” • Properly, I actually don’t like both of them, too. I assume Newsom has his speaking factors prepared, however will probably be attention-grabbing to see what DeSantis’s oppo staff comes up with. Additionally, “critical mishap”? Versus an unserious one?

“DeSantis v Newsom: the presidential match-up that isn’t” [The Economist]. “Image it: two of America’s strongest governors take the controversy stage. One is sporting copious quantities of hair gel. The opposite might, or might not, be carrying lifted boots to seem taller…. In one other universe this might have been a prime-time debate in the course of the 2024 presidential marketing campaign. As an alternative, Messrs DeSantis and Newsom will face off on Fox Information on November thirtieth for causes unclear even to the governors themselves. Throughout an interview final month in Los Angeles, your correspondent requested Mr Newsom why People ought to watch a debate between one (floundering) presidential candidate, and a governor who isn’t (presently) operating for something. ‘I don’t know they need to,’ he replied merrily.”

“Is Gov. Newsom dropping political momentum as debate with Gov. DeSantis nears?” [Orlando Sentinel]. “Gavin Newsom remains to be a rising political star, however his path to nationwide prominence has gotten rocky as he heads into his debate Thursday with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. His approval score has sunk. He faces questions on his journey to China and the collapse of a serious freeway in downtown Los Angeles. He angered longtime labor supporters by vetoing two payments they needed, together with one that may have supplied strike advantages to jobless employees. When the thought of a Newsom-DeSantis debate was floated earlier this 12 months, it promised an unfiltered have a look at two political up-and-comers who might sometime compete for the presidency. It nonetheless has that potential, however the stars should not as brilliant.”

* * *

“Not Solely Can Trump Win, Proper Now He’s the Favourite To Win” [Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics]. “As of this writing, Trump leads Biden by 2.6 share factors nationally within the RealClearPolitics Common. That is Trump’s largest lead within the RCP common to this point. Not for 2024, thoughts you. Ever. Let’s put this in perspective. In 2016, Trump led Hillary Clinton for all of 5 days within the nationwide RCP Common, every of these days within the speedy aftermath of the Republican conference. He led in 29 polls taken over the course of your complete marketing campaign, 10 of that are recorded within the RCP averages as Los Angeles Occasions/USC monitoring polls. In 2020, Trump by no means led Biden within the nationwide RCP Common. He briefly closed to inside 4 factors in early January of 2020, however that’s it. He led in 5 polls all cycle. So, counting the L.A. Occasions tracker as a single ballot, Trump led in a complete of 24 nationwide polls. This cycle? He’s led in that many since mid-September. He’s led in additional polls up to now three weeks than he did in opposition to Biden in all of 2019-2020. Chances are you’ll be considering that we don’t elect our president by way of the favored vote, however quite achieve this by means of the Electoral School. That is, after all, true. It additionally makes Trump’s present place within the polls all of the extra placing. In any case, Trump has persistently outperformed his polling, and his Electoral School positioning has persistently been stronger than his nationwide positioning.” • Test the submit for state knowledge: MI, PA, WI, FL, AZ, GA, OH.

“The ultimate countdown: Trump holds commanding lead over DeSantis, Haley, with 50 days till Iowa caucuses” [FOX]. “Whereas Trump has held practically 20 occasions in Iowa this 12 months, the Florida governor has made roughly 130 stops, with lots of these hosted by the DeSantis-aligned tremendous PAC By no means Again Down. Moreover, the tremendous PAC has spent tens of millions to place collectively a formidable floor sport in Iowa. DeSantis additionally grabbed the high-profile endorsement earlier this month of Gov. Kim Reynolds, who stays highly regarded with Iowa Republicans. Final week, he gained the backing of Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of The Household Chief, an influential social conservative group in a state the place evangelical voters play an outsized function in Republican politics…. Nevertheless, what as soon as gave the impression to be a two-candidate battle for the GOP nomination is now a three-way battle.. Haley, who has loved momentum within the polls in current months, thanks partly to well-received performances within the first three GOP presidential main debates, has leapfrogged DeSantis for second place in New Hampshire – which holds the primary main and votes second within the Republican nominating schedule – and her residence state – which holds the primary southern contest. Now, she goals to make a battle of it in Iowa, the place she is pulling even with DeSantis in a number of the newest polls.” • Fifty purchasing days till Iowa….

IA: “High evangelical says ‘Iowa will stand up’ in opposition to Trump” [The Hill]. • After Trump’s judges nuked Roe. Why, the ingratitude! One would, in any case, anticipate Christian to remain purchased….

* * *

“Buying and selling on the household title: Don’t neglect about Frank Biden” [Washington Times]. “What’s in a reputation? That depends upon who you ask – some names are extra helpful than others. Home Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer is asking President Biden whether or not his is price $200,000 (or was in 2018, earlier than inflation spiked). That was the quantity of a test the president’s brother James wrote to Joe ostensibly as a ‘mortgage compensation.’ Mr. Comer needs to know the main points as a result of there’s no document of such a mortgage elsewhere within the president’s paperwork. It looks like a worthy query, given the allegations of Hunter Biden repeatedly utilizing the household title to land profitable sinecures at Ukrainian and Chinese language power firms – ‘10% for the Massive Purchase’ and all that. There aren’t too many households with $200,000 checks circulating, not to mention life-long public servants ready to make that form of mortgage. Whereas he’s at it, Chairman Comer shouldn’t neglect the opposite Biden brother. Frank Biden is a serial name-trader, going again at the very least to when he was a Florida actual property developer, and Joe was U.S. vp. Since 2018, Frank has been a non-attorney senior adviser on the Berman Regulation Group, a Boca Raton, Florida legislation agency. On Jan. 20, 2021, the day of his brother’s presidential inauguration, Frank positioned an advert in Florida’s Day by day Enterprise Evaluation. As CNBC reported on the time, ‘The advert focuses on a lawsuit the agency is main in opposition to a gaggle of Florida sugar cane firms. It incorporates a picture of Frank Biden, together with quotes relating to his relationship with the incoming president and the household title.’” • Simply tacky. The sheer grime and pettiness of the grift.

* * *

“Dean Phillips says ‘it’s delusional’ to suppose Biden can beat Trump” [The Hill]. “Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) on Saturday criticized President Biden for his current ballot numbers, arguing it’s “delusional” to suppose he might overtake former President Trump in a rematch. ‘As a member of Home Democratic Management, I supported and promoted the Biden agenda, Phillips wrote Saturday on X, the platform previously referred to as Twitter. ‘I campaigned for him, voted for him, and respect him.’ ‘However how can anybody learn this and conclude he’s positioned to defeat Donald Trump?’ he added, sharing an article from Politico centered on Biden’s fall in approval scores. ‘It’s delusional.’ The Politico evaluation piece famous that in survey outcomes from 13 separate pollsters in November alone, the president’s place had fallen in all however two of them.” • Extra from Phillips:

Oh, Dean. It’s gonna take greater than that:


* * *

“Manchin 2024 chatter places highlight on No Labels” [The Hill]. “The efforts of No Labels to arrange a third-party ticket in 2024 obtained a possible enhance with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-W.Va.) flirtation with a possible presidential bid…. Manchin’s discuss of a doable White Home run has put the highlight on No Labels, a self-described “nationwide motion of commonsense People” that’s considered as maybe the probably outlet for a third-party candidate to get on the poll subsequent 12 months. The senator earlier this 12 months attended a No Labels city corridor occasion in New Hampshire together with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman (R).” Now comes the necessary half: “Whereas Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West have individually launched impartial presidential bids, it’s unclear whether or not they are going to get on the poll in sufficient states to considerably have an effect on the 2024 race. No Labels, in the meantime, has already gained poll entry in 12 states. Clancy stated the group is on observe to be on the poll or energetic in 27 states by the tip of the 12 months. The purpose is to be on the poll in 34 states by the spring, and Clancy famous the remaining 16 both require a named candidate to achieve entry or require much less administrative work to get on the poll and may very well be dealt with by an eventual ticket. No Labels expects to resolve ‘someday after March 15’ about whether or not to supply its poll line to a ticket and who can be on a theoretical lineup.” • Manchin operating for President is the stupidest concept I’ve heard in a very long time, so I suppose the possibilities are good it should occur. (I do suppose that there are many individuals who seeing “No Labels” on the poll would vote for that get together on the title alone, a intelligent tactic.

* * *

“Charles Koch’s anti-Trump group endorses Nikki Haley in Republican main” [ABC]. “[Americans for Prosperity Action, the] Koch-backed group stayed out of the 2016 and 2020 presidential cycles however has important sources to try to enhance Haley’s marketing campaign, although AFP Motion is up to now staying mum on how a lot it plans to spend. The group reported elevating greater than $70 million in its final public submitting, in June, with $25 million coming from Koch himself and one other $25 million from one in every of his nonprofit teams… AFP Motion thinks it could possibly make a distinction: ABC Information reviewed a number of inside memos, based mostly on the group’s polling and door-knocking operations in early states, suggesting that about 4 in 10 GOP voters in Iowa and New Hampshire say the first marketing campaign ‘hasn’t begun’ or has ‘simply began.’ AFP Motion additionally believes that three in 4 Republicans are open to a Trump different in the event that they suppose that individual has a greater probability of successful.”

“How Haley’s Hawks Introduced Carnage to Ukraine” [The American Conservative]. “[T]he ‘accountable folks’ are decided to take care of their perches of accountability—which is to say, their energy. On the precise, this implies a concerted push to fabricate enthusiasm for Nikki Haley’s problem to Donald Trump within the GOP main. A $1,000-per-ticket fundraiser for Haley on Nov. 13, beforehand unreported elsewhere, opened a revealing window onto this effort…. The host committee was a who’s who of the kinds of “accountable folks” who plunged the USA into two fruitless wars within the twenty years after 9/11 and/or served as employed weapons for varied overseas regimes and corporations.” • The record isn’t truly that spectacular, since a lot of the above-baseline hawks are within the Biden administration (Nuland et al.).

* * *

“The Thoughts-Bending Politics of RFK Jr.’s Spoiler Marketing campaign” [Olivia Nuzzi, New York Magazine]. “At this level, all that’s clear is that nobody has any concept what’s going to occur between now and November 2024 or how to reply to the menace Kennedy poses to the Biden-Trump binary. As it’s, Kennedy is in some circumstances polling not far behind both possible major-party nominee and in all circumstances polling properly sufficient that, had been the election held at this time, his presence within the race would outline what the following chapter of American historical past appears like. As he put it, ‘My intention is to spoil it for each of them.’… His supporters are ‘reasonable and considerate,’ ‘vital thinkers,’ ‘people who find themselves keen to query orthodoxy and people who find themselves fed up with ideological orthodoxy,; Kennedy advised me. ;Now we have quite a lot of antiwar individuals who had been historically left-wing Democrats, however I’d say the foremost portion is basically within the center, they usually are usually individuals who take heed to podcasts, to longform interviews, which is a kind that I believe is basically sympathetic to me.’ He added, ‘It’s like an enormous model of the Milgram experiment,’ by which he signifies that they characterize the 35 % of members within the well-known examine who refused to press the button to zap others with deadly voltages of electrical shocks.” • Properly price a learn.

RFK on the spooks:

Discover that Carlson, very gently, pushes again.

“Robert Kennedy Jr. counts on youth in push to get on all 50 state ballots” [Washington Times]. “Mr. Kennedy’s subsequent occasion takes place in Utah [see below] on Thursday, and his selection of location is of be aware. He’ll host his rally at Sky SLC — a spacious, open-air, three-level Salt Lake Metropolis nightclub and live performance venue with a retractable glass roof, VIP suites, high-tech lighting and state-of-the-art sound. The location can accommodate 1,000 folks…. ‘Now we have a sturdy ballot-access staff and RFK Jr.’s title can be on the poll in all 50 states,’ stated Stefanie Spear, press secretary for the Kennedy marketing campaign. ‘Now we have begun signature assortment in open states and are assured Mr. Kennedy will get the 270 electoral votes he must win the White Home,’ she stated.”

* * *

“The philosopher-in-chief” [Deseret News]. “There’s no presidential candidate fairly like Dr. Cornel West. He’s a public thinker, not a politician; he’s extra inclined to talk of America’s challenges as ethical conundrums than as coverage failures. As an alternative of citing Washington and Jefferson on the stump, he quotes Stevie Surprise and Duke Ellington. And as a substitute of strategically launching the primary in-person rally of his marketing campaign in Pennsylvania or Georgia or some other variety of 2024 swing states, West touched down in Salt Lake Metropolis Monday evening, on the eve of town’s mayoral election. The explanation, West advised a crowd of of about 200 on the College of Utah’s pupil union, is easy: town is about to decide on its mayor by ranked selection voting for the primary time, a victory for democracy, per West’s view. He’d additionally come to endorse Michael Valentine, a 35-year-old activist going through off in opposition to an incumbent, Erin Mendenhall, and one in every of her predecessors, Rocky Anderson — every vying to change into the chief of Utah’s most progressive metropolis. It didn’t harm, both, that Utah’s comparatively lax guidelines to get on a presidential poll — you simply have to get the requisite signatures and pay a charge — bode properly for West. ‘As you all know, we’re specializing in poll entry,’ West stated. ‘Utah goes to be the No. 1 state in my marketing campaign that may put me on the poll.’ The gang cheered.” Additionally: “‘I believe there’s an excellent probability (Biden) might not even be the candidate,’ West advised me. ‘I believe there’s probability he’ll run out of gasoline, and there’s an opportunity Trump may find yourself in jail.’” • So, within the stability v. volatility dichotomy, West is a volatilist (as am I).

“Gabor Maté and Cornel West on Gaza and the Human Soul” (video) [Useful Idiots, YouTube].

“Cornel West hits Sanders for not calling for cease-fire in Gaza: ‘Fairly pathetic’” [The Hill]. • He’s not mistaken.

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Donations to GOP drop as worries mount in regards to the get together’s funds” [WaPo]. “The Republican Celebration’s funds are more and more worrisome to get together members, advisers to former president Donald Trump, and different operatives concerned within the 2024 election effort, in response to 10 folks conversant in the matter. The Republican Nationwide Committee disclosed that it had $9.1 million in money available as of Oct. 30, the bottom quantity for the RNC in any Federal Election Fee report since February 2015. That compares with about $20 million on the identical level within the 2016 election cycle and about $61 million 4 years in the past, when Trump was within the White Home. The Democratic Nationwide Committee reported having $17.7 million as of Oct. 30, virtually twice as a lot because the Republican Celebration, with one 12 months earlier than the election…. Donors haven’t minimize as many massive checks to the RNC lately, and the get together’s small-dollar program has additionally suffered, in response to folks conversant in the get together’s funds, who, like others, spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate inside get together particulars. Some donors aren’t giving to the RNC as a result of they suppose that may assist Trump, which they don’t need to do, these folks stated, whereas others have stated they like to attend till 2024 to offer. Some have grown annoyed with the get together’s management, folks near main donors stated…. An RNC spokeswoman stated the get together has nonetheless deployed workers in 15 swing states to start out engaged on get-out-the-vote efforts and election monitoring. The get together can also be pursuing 70 lawsuits in 19 states difficult voting guidelines and is encouraging Republicans to make use of early voting and mail ballots — strategies Trump and his allies have disparaged, at the same time as RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel repeatedly touts the significance of the ‘Financial institution Your Vote’ initiative. All federal get together committees — Democratic and Republican — have seen downturns in income since 2021, a pattern that operatives often attribute to inflation and donor fatigue.” • “Donor fatigue” jogs my memory of one other catchphrase that occupies the house evaluation ought to: “immunity debt.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“A Revisionist Historical past Of Cuomogate” [Lever News (Bob)]. “Because the pandemic started, Cuomo handed a finances that included a little-noticed provision giving nursing residence and hospital executives sweeping immunity from legal responsibility for ‘any hurt or damages alleged to have been sustained on account of an act or omission in the middle of arranging for or offering well being care providers’ to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak…. A report by New York Legal professional Basic Letitia James (D) discovered that the immunity provisions ‘can present monetary incentives to for-profit nursing residence operators to place residents prone to hurt by refraining from investing public funds to acquire ample staffing to satisfy residents’ care wants, to buy ample [personal protective equipment] for workers, and to offer efficient coaching to workers to adjust to an infection management protocols throughout pandemics and different public well being emergencies.’…. A number of days after Cuomo’s resignation, new Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) launched a report admitting that 12,000 extra New York state residents had died of COVID-19 than Cuomo’s administration had reported. A few quarter of these lifeless had been nursing residence residents.” • Stochastic eugenicism.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Why the ‘Ruling Class’ Want Not Rule: Nicos Poulantzas and the Marxist Idea of the State [Cosmonaut]. That is lengthy, and as Yves would say, meaty. However some critical considering happening (although “Althusser” is a set off phrase for me). “Not like the feudal system, the place financial exploitation is explicitly political, the capitalist state uniquely has relative autonomy from the financial system and its dominant lessons. This relative separation between the financial and the political is conjoined with the state’s new impersonal type of legitimacy based mostly on ‘the need of the folks’ versus the divine proper, permitting it to current itself as consultant of the ‘nation’s common pursuits’ and its legal guidelines take a seemingly ‘impartial’ character. This obscures the category relations of the depoliticized capitalist ‘financial system’ which reproduces a division between those that stay off handbook labor, ‘mental labor,’ and house owners of capital who revenue from it. From the very begin, this division of labor (for essentially the most half) successfully excludes the overwhelming majority of powerless wage laborers from partaking within the ruling of the state, the creation of its legal guidelines, the enforcement of these legal guidelines, and the manufacturing of ideology and established ‘information’ that rationalizes this course of. These ‘goal buildings’ of the capitalist mode of manufacturing that represent what Poulantzas calls the ‘institutional materiality’ of the state can be additional elaborated upon with different parts of his idea all through this essay. Thus, an inherent class bias is constructed into the system that’s ideologically veiled by the state’s impartial standing as a guarantor of the nation’s ‘public curiosity’ and its authorized atomization of lessons into particular person ‘residents’ with formally equal rights.” And: “Poulantzas asserts that even when there’s a shift in school composition inside state apparatuses in favor of the favored lessons, ‘the state tends ultimately to re-establish the connection of forces in favor of the bourgeoisie, generally in a brand new kind.’” • See, e.g., the Powell Memo.

“Why America Deserted the Best Financial system in Historical past” [Rogé Karma, The Atlantic]. “Why did America abandon the New Deal so decisively? And why did so many citizens and politicians embrace the free-market consensus that changed it?…. Three major theories have emerged, every with its personal account of how we obtained right here and what it’d take to vary course. One idea holds that the story is basically in regards to the white backlash to civil-rights laws. One other pins extra blame on the Democratic Celebration’s cultural elitism. And the third focuses on the function of worldwide crises past any political get together’s management. Every idea is incomplete by itself.” Oddly, no point out of the neoliberal flip coincident with the Powell memo.” Quick ahead: “At present, we appear to be dwelling by means of one other inflection level in American politics—one which in some methods resembles the ’60s and ’70s. Then and now, beforehand sturdy coalitions collapsed, new points surged to the fore, and insurance policies as soon as thought of radical turned mainstream. Political leaders in each events not really feel the identical have to bow on the altar of free markets and small authorities. However, additionally just like the ’70s, the present second is outlined by a way of unresolved contestation. Though many elderly concepts have misplaced their maintain, they’ve but to get replaced by a brand new financial consensus. The outdated order is crumbling, however a brand new one has but to be born.” Indirect Gramsci reference? Extra: “Since taking workplace, President Joe Biden has pursued an bold coverage agenda designed to remodel the U.S. financial system and brought overt pictures at Reagan’s legacy. ‘Milton Friedman isn’t operating the present anymore,’ Biden quipped in 2020. But an financial paradigm is simply as sturdy because the political coalition that backs it. Not like Nixon, Biden has not discovered learn how to cleave aside his opponents’ coalition. And in contrast to Reagan, he hasn’t stumble on the form of grand political narrative wanted to forge a brand new one. Present polling means that he might wrestle to win reelection. In the meantime, the Republican Celebration struggles to muster any coherent financial agenda. A handful of Republican senators, together with J. D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Josh Hawley, have embraced financial populism to some extent, however they continue to be a minority inside their get together.” • This subject does appear a bit extra dynamic than overseas coverage and nationwide safety. However these two fields set a low bar.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

Extra optimism:

A protracted thread describing the dialog between the account (Covid-conscious) and the physician (not particularly), culminating on this:

“I believe all of us obtained carried away” could also be nearly as good a proof as we’ll ever get. However I’d like to see some actual sociological investigation finished on this. (Though HICPAC isn’t “carried away” in any respect; they’re fairly clear on their mission.

Censorship and Propaganda

“What’s behind China’s mysterious wave of childhood pneumonia?” [Nature]. “Nationwide lockdowns and different measures carried out to sluggish the unfold of COVID-19 prevented seasonal pathogens from circulating, giving folks much less alternative to construct up immunity in opposition to these microorganisms, a phenomenon referred to as ‘immunity debt’, stated Francois Balloux, a computational biologist at College School London, in a press release to the UK Science Media Centre. “Since China skilled a far longer and harsher lockdown than basically some other nation on Earth, it was anticipated that these ‘lockdown exit’ waves may very well be substantial in China,” stated Balloux.” • I don’t know why Nature is selling immunity debt (see, e.g.), whereas not selling immune dysregulation. Here’s a historical past of the time period, which appears to have been invented by bent pediatricians after which amplified by our famously free press–

“‘Immunity Debt’? Established 2021” [Counter-Disinformation]. A media critique tracing the time period to its origin. “That is how one unconvincing paper and the Wall Avenue Journal seeded the thought of immunity debt which was then repeated and amplified by different media sources. From being talked about in a single paper launched in Could, by mid July immunity debt was being handled as a properly established and well-known a part of scientific literature. It’s astounding that the identical individuals who dismiss so many research as missing rigour or not being legitimate as a result of there isn’t a RCT had been so fast to undertake immunity debt when you think about the time it took for covid to be accepted as being airborne, how lengthy some have continued to debate masks, and the way air filtration remains to be not accepted as a way to decreasing transmission. The excessive requirements required to justify measures in colleges dissipated like a puff of smoke when an idea to argue in opposition to measures in colleges was encountered.” • One apparent literature search:

Probably essentially the most studied inhabitants on earth….

Science Is Popping

“Scientists uncover receptor that blocks COVID-19 an infection” [Phys.org]. “College of Sydney scientists have found a protein within the lung that blocks SARS-CoV-2 an infection and kinds a pure protecting barrier within the human physique. This protein, the leucine-rich repeat-containing protein 15 (LRRC15), is an inbuilt receptor that binds the SARS-CoV-2 virus with out passing on the an infection. The analysis opens up a completely new space of immunology analysis round LRRC15 and gives a promising pathway to develop new medication to forestall viral an infection from coronaviruses like COVID-19 or take care of fibrosis within the lungs….. The COVID-19 virus infects people by utilizing a spike protein to connect to a particular receptor in our cells. It primarily makes use of a protein known as the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to enter human cells. Lung cells have excessive ranges of ACE2 receptors, which is why the COVID-19 virus usually causes extreme issues on this organ of contaminated folks. Like ACE2, LRRC15 is a receptor for coronavirus, that means the virus can bind to it. However not like ACE2, LRRC15 doesn’t help an infection. It may possibly, nevertheless, stick with the virus and immobilize it. Within the course of, it prevents different susceptible cells from turning into contaminated. ‘We expect it acts a bit like Velcro, molecular Velcro, in that it sticks to the spike of the virus after which pulls it away from the goal cell sorts,’ Dr. [Lipin] Lavatory stated.”

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

Yeah, however who says it was a mistake?

(To be honest, once I take into consideration these points severely, as an analyst, I take the highlight off the people and deal with “institutional materiality” (neat phrase). Nonetheless, to see these ensuited, embubbled, smiling folks mouthing platitudes…. It actually frosts me.

A reader throws this over the transom:

This morning I used to be strolling by means of the check-in/ready space of the Most cancers Heart and overheard a (unmasked) check-in individual informing an older girl that she’d must put on a masks throughout all of her appointments at this time as a result of ‘it hasn’t been 10 days.’ That means she’d answered sure to having had covid within the final 10 days. The older girl was standing there unmasked-amongst an enormous ready room stuffed with most cancers sufferers. It was a kind of “WTF?” moments. Nothing is sensible anymore and it makes my mind harm. It’s like Alice in Wonderland, I suppose. And naturally all they hand out are saggy blues as a result of our administrator solely spends cash on PR and superficial issues whereas the hospital is hemorrhaging workers as a result of poor pay and dealing circumstances. Wastewater numbers are so excessive, and there’s nonetheless no masks mandate on the hospital. The MDs ought to all lose their licenses. They’re the worst offenders. Rant over. And the Departmental Christmas get together is Friday evening on the major cafeteria on campus. Needs to be attention-grabbing.”

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Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts shifting well upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide after they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot it’s important to look ahead to backward revisions.

Variants

From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, however BA.2.86 arising quick on the skin.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 18:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 28:

Up. Degree-ish, however I guess hospitalization drops over the vacation weekend. Let’s wait and see. New York state as a complete appears extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. November 18:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

From Walgreens, November 27:

0.4%. Up. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:

Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 6:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.

Deaths

Whole: 1,183,455 – 1,183,396 = 59 (59 * 365 = 21,535 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is just too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I could must revert to CDC knowledge. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Manufacturing Exercise Index within the Richmond space decreased to -5 in November 2023 from 3 in October, lacking market expectations of 1.”

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Tech: “Instagram’s Algorithm Delivers Poisonous Video Combine to Adults Who Comply with Youngsters” [Wall Street Journal]. “nstagram’s Reels video service is designed to point out customers streams of quick movies on subjects the system decides will curiosity them, comparable to sports activities, style or humor. The Meta Platforms social app does the identical factor for customers its algorithm decides may need a prurient curiosity in kids, testing by The Wall Avenue Journal confirmed. The Journal sought to find out what Instagram’s Reels algorithm would suggest to check accounts set as much as comply with solely younger gymnasts, cheerleaders and different teen and preteen influencers energetic on the platform. Instagram’s system served jarring doses of salacious content material to these check accounts, together with risqué footage of kids in addition to overtly sexual grownup movies—and adverts for a number of the largest U.S. manufacturers. The Journal arrange the check accounts after observing that the hundreds of followers of such younger folks’s accounts usually embody massive numbers of grownup males, and that most of the accounts who adopted these kids additionally had demonstrated curiosity in intercourse content material associated to each kids and adults. The Journal additionally examined what the algorithm would suggest after its accounts adopted a few of these customers as properly, which produced more-disturbing content material interspersed with adverts. In a stream of movies advisable by Instagram, an advert for the courting app Bumble appeared between a video of somebody stroking the face of a life-size latex doll and a video of a younger woman with a digitally obscured face lifting up her shirt to reveal her midriff. In one other, a Pizza Hut business adopted a video of a person mendacity on a mattress along with his arm round what the caption stated was a 10-year-old woman. The Canadian Centre for Youngster Safety, a child-protection group, individually ran related exams by itself, with related outcomes.” • One can solely wonder if there can be speedy calls by liberal Democrats for Biden and Harris to desert Threads, an X competitor owned by Meta, or whether or not there can be a deafening silence. I’m betting on silence.

Transportation: “Failed wheel bearing prompted Kentucky derailment, CSX says” [Trains]. “CSX says a failed wheel bearing prompted the Nov. 22 derailment that led to an evacuation of residents in Livington, Ky., on Thanksgiving. In a Sunday assertion, the railroad stated it has accomplished the elimination of all 16 railcars concerned within the incident that occurred about 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, and has accomplished elimination of the spilled sulphur that caught hearth and led to the evacuation….” • Bearings once more, eh? This time, CSX, not Norfolk Southern. CSX makes use of precision scheduled railroading too, unsurprisingly.

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At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 65 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 28 at 1:57:03 PM ET.

The Gallery

“Arduous Occasions” [The Nation]. “WPA work could be difficult to have interaction with as artwork, quite than as historical past or propaganda: Created for government-run services and topic to state-imposed constraints, it clashes with our beliefs of inventive freedom. The WPA’s tips forbade overt political content material (though it discovered its approach in nonetheless) and steered artists towards legibility, prioritizing illustration over abstraction and favoring the social realist aesthetic. Artists making an attempt to get by in an period of mass unemployment had little selection however to just accept these constraints. But this context makes the person visions that shine by means of all of the extra significant. By working inside such constraints, artists like Guston found new modes of illustration and irony.”

Class Warfare

“Why wealthy folks are inclined to suppose they deserve their cash” [Marketplace]. From 2021, nonetheless germane. “One experiment by psychologists on the College of California, Irvine, invited pairs of strangers to play a rigged Monopoly sport the place a coin flip designated one participant wealthy and one poor. The wealthy gamers obtained twice as a lot cash as their opponent to start with; as they performed the sport, they obtained to roll two cube as a substitute of 1 and transfer across the board twice as quick as their opponent; after they handed ‘Go,’ they collected $200 to their opponent’s $100…. In varied methods — by means of physique language and boasting about their wealth, by smacking their items loudly in opposition to the enjoying board and making gentle of their opponents’ misfortune — the wealthy gamers started to behave as if they deserved the nice fortune that was largely a results of their fortunate roll of the cube. On the finish of the sport, when researchers requested the wealthy gamers why they’d gained the sport, not one individual attributed it to luck. ‘They don’t discuss in regards to the flip of the coin. They discuss in regards to the issues that they did. They discuss their acumen, they discuss their competencies, they discuss this determination or that call,’ that contributed to their win, [psychologist Paul Piff] stated in an interview with host David Brancaccio. Piff stated the experiment reveals a elementary bias that the majority people share. ‘When one thing good occurs to you, we take into consideration the issues that we did that contributed to that success,’ Piff stated.” • Hmm.

“Work and Office” [Gallup]. Useful desk:

“Pluralistic: The ethical harm of getting your work enshittified” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “There’s a reputation for phenomenon wherein you care a lot about your job that you simply endure poor circumstances and abuse: it’s known as ‘vocational awe,’ as coined by Fobazi Ettarh…. Ettarh makes use of the time period to use to historically low-waged employees like librarians, academics and nurses. In our e book Chokepoint Capitalism, Rebecca Giblin and I talked about the way it applies to artists and different inventive employees, too… However vocational awe can also be omnipresent in tech. The grandiose claims to be on a mission to make the world a greater place should not simply puffery – they’re an important technique of motivating employees who can simply give up their jobs and discover a new one to place in 16-hour days…. At present, atomized tech employees who’re ordered to enshittify the merchandise they take pleasure in are dropping the argument. … It’s a type of ethical harm, and it’s palpable within the first-person accounts of former employees who’ve exited these massive companies or your complete subject…. My competition right here isn’t that Google’s enshittification was precipitated by a change in personnel by way of the promotion of managers who’ve shitty concepts. Google’s enshittification was precipitated by a change in self-discipline, because the detrimental penalties of heeding these shitty concepts had been abolished because of monopoly. That is dangerous information for folks like me, who depend on providers like Google Maps as cognitive prostheses.” • Plenty of good things right here, together with this aphorism: “An app is only a web-page wrapped in sufficient IP to make it a criminal offense to put in an ad-blocker.” Additionally, the brand new Google map design is horrid.

Information of the Wired

“Periodic Desk of Instruments” • Useful chart:

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are positive! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From notabanker:

notabanker writes: “Took this shot at this time proper when the solar was setting.”

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